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Primary Submission Category: Place/Communities
Gentrification and housing affordability trajectories: Implications for health inequities
Authors: Mark Hernandez, Gina Lovasi, Gabriel Schwartz,
Presenting Author: Mark Hernandez*
Housing affordability is a key determinant of physical and mental health. Neighborhood gentrification is often theorized to exacerbate housing affordability issues and contribute to health inequities. However, few quantitative studies have examined how it shapes housing affordability trajectories over time, despite this being a chief concern among residents, community organizers, and policymakers. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (2001-2021), we address this gap by 1) identifying housing affordability trajectories among US families, 2) estimating associations between gentrification and trajectory class membership, and 3) assessing heterogeneity in these associations by income and housing tenure (rent vs. own).
Housing cost ratios (HCR) – the proportion of family income spent on housing – were calculated at each biennial wave. Gentrification status of respondents’ baseline census tract was computed using socioeconomic and housing cost changes (2000-2010) and categorized as: not gentrified, moderately gentrified, intensely gentrified, or ineligible to gentrify. We used group-based trajectory models to identify distinct HCR trajectories. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate associations between gentrification and trajectory class membership, adjusting for baseline covariates.
Among 6,303 respondents living in core-based statistical areas at baseline, four trajectory classes were identified: stable low (74%), moderate-low (17%), high-moderate (4%), and increasing HCR (low to high; 5%). In the full sample, gentrification was not associated with trajectory class membership. However, among low-income respondents, intense gentrification was associated with higher odds of belonging to the increasing HCR trajectory.
These findings suggest that gentrification-related affordability pressures disproportionately burden lower-income residents, highlighting the need for equitable housing and neighborhood development policies.