Primary Submission Category: Mortality
Excess mortality from firearm homicide during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Authors: Annaka Scheeres Megan Todd
Presenting Author: Annaka Scheeres*
Background: Firearm homicides reached unprecedented levels in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study estimates excess mortality during the pandemic from all causes and from firearm homicide and assesses to what extent firearm homicide contributed to excess mortality in demographic subpopulations.
Methods: I trained a Poisson model on five years of historical death certificate data from the Pennsylvania vital registration system and used the model to estimate expected weekly deaths by race/ethnicity, sex, and age from March 15, 2020, to October 1, 2022. I compared expected deaths with observed deaths to estimate excess mortality from all causes and from firearm homicide during the pandemic.
Results: During this timeframe, I estimated 6,348 excess deaths, a significant 17% increase above expected trends. COVID-19 accounted for 85% (5,426) of these excess deaths, and non-COVID-19 causes of death accounted for the remaining 15%. I estimated 348 excess firearm homicides, a significant 39% increase above expected trends; firearm homicides accounted for 38% of non-COVID-19 excess deaths. Excess mortality from all causes increased significantly for non-Hispanic Black men at all ages and for older non-Hispanic Black women and non-Hispanic white people (≥ 35 years). Excess mortality from firearm homicide was disproportionately high only among non-Hispanic Black men younger than 35 years; 249 excess firearm homicides (162 per 100,000) occurred among this subpopulation.
Conclusions: In Philadelphia, excess mortality during the pandemic was not only due to COVID-19, and firearm homicide was a primary driver of non-COVID-19 excess mortality. The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant system-wide disruptions that exacerbated pre-existing disparities in firearm homicide by race/ethnicity, sex, and age. In future pandemics, public health officials must implement multi-faceted response plans that include strategies to prevent increases in firearm violence.