Primary Submission Category: Migration
Internal Migration & County-Level Life Expectancy
Authors: Anna Shetler
Presenting Author: Anna Shetler*
United States (US) life expectancy at birth (LE) is poor compared to other nations. Spatial variation of LE within the US is particularly stark: at the low end, Mississippi has an LE of 71.9 while Hawaii has an LE of 80.7. Such spatial heterogeneity is often explained by socioeconomic, racial, and healthcare differences by place. The role of migration on LE, however, remains understudied. Internal migration in the US has slowed since the 1940s but follows historical patterns, including that migrants are likely to move from rural to urban areas. This movement along the path of urbanization may be exacerbating US rural-urban health disparities.
In this paper, I assess to what extent migration contributes to geographic differences in LE; I seek to answer if a component of rural-urban disparities can be attributed to migration. I ask: how would removing internal migration impact LE in areas along the rural-urban continuum? Internal migration is an understudied and possible contributor to the spatial heterogeneity of US LE. I use county-to-county migration data from the IRS, net migration rate data from the Applied Population Lab, LE data from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, county characteristic data from the Census, and rural-urban classification data from the USDA.
I will construct multiple decrement life tables for all US counties to estimate LE in the scenario that internal migration is prevented. In preliminary findings on Dallas and Detroit counties, I find that LE drops by 0.27 and 0.05 years, respectively, in an average year when migration is prevented. In other words, migration improves the LE of such urban counties, likely at the detriment of more rural counties. For the IAPHS conference, I will expand the life tables to all US counties, and explore how rural, suburban, and urban areas might differ in LE estimates. Results from this study may inform distributions of healthcare and migratory support systems, particularly along rural-urban lines.